Is SMS ROI realistically that high in 2026?

For abandoned-cart SMS to a warm, opted-in subscriber list, yes — the math is straightforward. Abandoned-cart intent is pre-qualified (the buyer just tried to purchase). Broadcast or cold-list SMS ROI is much lower (the promo-blast preset shows about 18× at the same cost). Use the sensitivity chart to find the CTR your campaign actually needs.

Does the calculator account for opt-out / unsubscribe rates?

Not in this version — the model is a single-month snapshot of one campaign. The break-even line tells you whether each send is profitable on its own terms. For list decay over time, multiply your AOV by an expected repeat-purchase LTV multiplier as a proxy. Explicit list-decay modeling is planned for a future release.

How is break-even calculated?

Break-even sends = ceil(total cost / revenue per send), where revenue per send = (CTR / 100) × (conversion / 100) × AOV. If revenue per send exceeds cost per SMS, every send is profitable and the stat shows the volume that recoups your total spend. If revenue per send is below cost per SMS, no volume breaks even — fix CTR, conversion, or AOV first.

Does the calculator include sender-ID registration costs?

No. The cost-per-SMS field covers the per-message send cost only. If your campaign requires a dedicated number or short code with a recurring monthly fee, divide that fixed cost by your expected monthly send volume and add it to the per-SMS field. A $25/month short code amortized over 100,000 sends adds $0.00025 per SMS.

What about returns and refunds eating into AOV?

The calculator uses AOV as a gross revenue figure. For a more conservative model, multiply AOV by (1 − refund rate). For example, with $65 AOV and 8% refunds, enter $59.80. This produces a break-even number that accounts for returns rather than assuming every conversion fully converts to recognized revenue.

Are there industry benchmarks for SMS conversion rates?

Yes. Postscript's 2026 Shopify benchmark data shows abandoned-cart conversion at 4–8% (good tier 6%), promotional broadcast at 0.1–0.5% (median 0.3%), and win-back flows at 1–3%. Klaviyo's data aligns closely. B2B conversion is lower per click but higher on deal value — substitute first-invoice value for AOV.

SMS ROI Calculator

Q: Where does the abandoned-cart 156× ROI number come from?

From Postscript's 2026 Shopify SMS Benchmark Report (17,000+ stores) and Klaviyo's published SMS performance tiers. The 'good' tier midpoints for abandoned-cart SMS are 13% CTR and 6% conversion at a $65 average order value. At smsroute's $0.004/SMS, one send produces $0.507 of expected revenue — a 126.75× return; the headline 156× reflects higher-performing segments in the Postscript dataset.

Q: What CTR should I plug in if I'm new to SMS?

If you have no prior data, start with 3–5% CTR for a broadcast promotional campaign, or 8–13% for an abandoned-cart or triggered flow. These come from Klaviyo's SMS benchmark ranges. Once you have first-campaign data, replace the default with your own measured CTR.

Q: How is the sensitivity sweep useful?

The sweep locks all inputs except one and plots how net profit responds across that variable's range. It shows you which lever has the most impact, what CTR you need to break even, and whether halving your send cost matters as much as doubling conversion. It makes hidden trade-offs visible before you commit ad spend.

Q: Can I save and revisit a scenario?

Yes. Click Save scenario to store your current inputs and computed outputs to browser localStorage (key: smsroute.tools.roi.scenarios). Up to 3 scenarios are kept — saving a 4th drops the oldest. Click any saved row to restore those inputs; click × to delete. Nothing leaves your browser.

Q: Should I model with the $0.004 soft floor or my actual rate?

Always use your actual rate for a meaningful model. From $0.004/SMS across 149 countries is smsroute's soft floor — the cheapest destinations. US numbers via most providers run higher ($0.0085–$0.015). The default is set to the smsroute soft floor to show best-case economics; override the cost-per-SMS field with your blended rate.

Calculate the return on investment for your SMS campaigns. See how high deliverability drives more revenue.

Campaign Parameters

Monthly Messages10,000

Price Per Message (€)€0.050

Delivery Rate(99.999% with SMSRoute)99.5%

Open Rate (%)(SMS: 98% in 3 min)82%

Conversion Rate (%)(Above avg: 1-3%)10%

Avg. Transaction Value (€)€100

Profit Margin (%)30%

Alternative Channel Cost (€)€0.08

Your ROI

+4757%

Return on Investment

€24,477

Expected Profit

€504

Total Cost

Campaign Funnel

Messages Sent10,000

Delivered9,950

Opened8,159

Converted816

Revenue Breakdown

Expected Revenue€81,590

Expected Profit€24,477

SMS Costs-€500

Alternative Channel Gap-€4

Net Profit€23,973

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Frequently asked questions

Where does the abandoned-cart 156× ROI number come from?

Postscript's 2026 Shopify benchmark (17,000+ stores) and Klaviyo's published SMS tiers. Good-tier abandoned-cart midpoints: 13% CTR, 6% conversion, $65 AOV. At $0.004/SMS, one send produces $0.507 expected revenue — a 126.75× return; 156× reflects higher-performing segments.

What CTR should I plug in if I'm new to SMS?

3–5% CTR for a broadcast promo, or 8–13% for an abandoned-cart or triggered flow. These come from Klaviyo's published SMS benchmark ranges. Once you have first-campaign data, replace the default with your measured CTR.

How is the sensitivity sweep useful?

It locks all inputs except one and plots how net profit responds across that variable's range. You see which lever has the most impact, what CTR you need to break even, and whether halving send cost matters as much as doubling conversion.

Should I model with the $0.004 soft floor or my actual rate?

Always use your actual rate. From $0.004/SMS across 149 countries is smsroute's soft floor — the cheapest destinations. US numbers via most providers run higher ($0.0085–$0.015). Override the cost-per-SMS field with your blended rate.

Can I save and revisit a scenario?

Yes. Click Save scenario to store inputs and outputs to browser localStorage. Up to 3 scenarios are kept — saving a 4th drops the oldest. Click any saved row to restore; click × to delete. Nothing leaves your browser.

How do I run an A/B test based on this model?

Save your variant-A inputs as a baseline scenario. Edit inputs to reflect variant-B assumptions (different CTR, different AOV) and save again. Compare the two rows for expected net-profit difference. After your real send, update with measured numbers to compare reality to model.